Due to Brazil’s leading producer producing less coffee than anticipated, there will be a “record” third year of global coffee shortages, according to coffee merchant Volcafe.
According to a January estimate from the ED&F Man division, the global supply would fall behind demand in the coming season by 3.8 million bags, with robusta beans experiencing a record shortfall due to rising demand for the variety used in instant coffee and as a blend in espressos. According to the company, the current season’s shortage results from demand being 4.5 million bags more than supply.
Volcafe stated in the study that “this would entail an unprecedented, third consecutive deficit.” “We anticipate the most challenging time to start in August 2023 and last through 2024, with robusta sliding to record lows.”
Volcafe’s bullish forecast may result in higher prices for coffee drinkers. Consumers looking to save money while coping with persistently high food costs may find that even traditional brands at the store become more expensive if there is a robusta gap of this scale. Additionally, Starbucks Corp.’s preferred bean, arabica, is anticipated to be harvested less in Brazil, which could result in higher prices at coffee shops and chains.
Last February, due to two subpar crops in Brazil and Colombia, as well as delays in international transportation, Arabica futures reached a decade high. Since then, prices have decreased by roughly 40%, partly due to market predictions that Brazilian growers would harvest a record-breaking arabica crop this year.
According to Volcafe, Brazil’s Minas Gerais state, the largest arabica-growing area in the world, is currently only capable of producing 40.5 million bags of arabica for the harvest beginning in May, down from a projection of 49.8 million bags made in July. The company reduced its forecasts for the 2022–23 season by 1.1%, partly because of frost damage.
The most popular coffee variety has historically been arabica, but according to Volcafe, robusta represented 48% of global consumption in 2017. This is mirrored in the tightening availability of the less expensive bean type. Arabicas typically sell for more than robustas, but this difference has been slashed in half over the past year due to a shift in blends toward less expensive grades.
Robusta is projected to increase as customers seek less-priced solutions due to inflation and sluggish economic growth.
Due to damage from excessive rainfall in its main growing zones, Indonesia, the world’s third-largest producer of robusta, is also anticipated to have its smallest robusta harvest in ten years next season. The variety’s global deficit, which is anticipated to treble to 5.6 million bags next season, will be impacted by this. A bag is 60 kilos in weight.
According to the study, “we forecast substantial global robusta usage to persist until a significant change back to arabica is rewarded either by consumer demand or relative price.”
The average annual consumption of coffee in the United States is 146 billion cups when all those millions of cups eaten daily are added together. About nine pounds of coffee are consumed annually per person in the United States.
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